The High Cost of Backtracking on Carbon – Jobs, Dollars – and a Brain Drain as well

Cutting and pausing the target carbon price will sacrifice thousands of clean economy jobs. Sustainability and carbon-cost incentivized investments are already “falling off a cliff”, as ROI diminishes, leaving the GDP contributions of the clean economy industries, presently worth over $200 billion – and supporting over 700,000 jobs, already at risk NOW – and that’s before this backwards signal – and before we even begin to consider that the clean industry economy is poised to triple world-wide over the next 10 years. In all, this acquiescence to Alberta’s dreams of a never-ending world dependence on fossil-fuels – and in particular, their very dirty crude oil – locks us in to 15 years of increasing carbon emissions – and falling further and further behind the world, as it overwhelmingly shifts to clean energy and clean tech…

We shouldn’t set up to export our brightest talent to Europe, and get left behind as China and Europe invest strategically in the future – while we double down on an industry that, at best, stays flat. But that is what we’re doing.

Understand this: If nurtured, the clean industry triples – but if gutted by a non-existent price on Carbon pollution, it vanishes.

The consensus across recent media coverage suggests that while PM Carney is holding firm on the concept of industrial carbon pricing, his willingness to negotiate timelines and provide concessions to the oil sector has created a “softening” across the clean-economy market

If the carbon price “gift” to Alberta goes ahead, the federal government isn’t just shifting policy—it is actively dismantling a high-growth sector. We are already seeing the measurable impact of these signals. Companies are reading the tea leaves and ceasing new, or pausing investment in energy efficiency projects that no longer meet ROI requirements. Sustainability and ESG departments are being cut, and senior employees are being fired.

The human cost is staggering. One of Canada’s “Big 4” consulting firms has seen its sustainability and ESG business—which has been growing 25% year-over-year each year for half a decade—suddenly decline by a whopping 45% in just nine months. Pure-play sustainability consulting firms are reeling, and pipelines for new energy efficiency engineering projects in commercial real estate have effectively fallen off a cliff.

These are not just numbers on a spreadsheet; these are remarkably good jobs for bright young Canadians and trades people. These are roles in Canadian companies where profits stay here, and unlike many sectors, these are positions not easily replaced by AI.

At the BuildGreen Atlantic conference in Halifax recently, every business owner I spoke to noted a sudden “softening” in their new business pipelines. While existing projects are being completed, new ones are fewer and further between – meaning we have yet to feel the brunt of what is to come.  One employer mentioned seeing high-quality engineers’ resumes flood his desk—something he hasn’t seen in a decade. It isn’t a sign of a healthy labor market; it’s a sign of an industry in retreat.

A cap of $130 per tonne by 2040 will decimate the clean industry sector that currently contributes over $200 billion to our GDP and an estimated 700,000 jobs, and has been on a rapid growth curve for 10 years. If nurtured, that contribution could triple, while the oil industry steadily declines. If gutted, our clean-tech industry and our brightest minds will simply move south or to Europe and Asia.

I am already hearing from young professionals with Masters degrees from Western and U of T who are actively seeking employment in the UK, Denmark, and Rome.

We are choosing to abandon our single biggest opportunity for prosperity over the next 30 years… for an industry that has cut employment by 65,000 workers since 2013, and is now under 150,000 workers, with expectations of dramatic decline and stranded assets.   

Dear Prime Minister Carney – and the sadly, largely silent, so-called “climate caucus”: For the sake of our economy, our talent, our kids and Canada’s future economy: Please don’t do this!