The Story We’re Not Telling About Canada’s Economic Reality
I was absolutely gobsmacked earlier this week by just how pervasive certain myths are, and thus realizing just how much work we in the “clean economy” have to do, before Canadians will believe we can transition – and that the clean economy is a real option that can displace the fossil fuel industry as an engine for prosperity, employment, improved health, a better environment, in Canada – and also, as a bonus – a little climate action.
At the invitation of Dr. Wren Montgomery, (greenwashing expert and Clean50 2026) I took the “clean economy” show down the 401 to London and Western, my alma mater, addressing two 4th year HBA classes at Ivey – arguably Canada’s top biz school.
Before I began my description of Canada’s clean economy, I asked both classes a lead-off question: “What percentage does Canada’s oil & gas business contribute to our GDP”?
Their answers blew me (and Wren!) away.
I got a wide range of responses. The closest – 1 of ~20 students who answered – suggested 35%. Most of the others? Between 50 and 65%,one 40% and a couple at 70% with one outlier suggesting 90%!!
It was literally breathtaking.
When I shared the answer was actually 7.8% (all in – direct & indirect. If we talk just direct contribution, per StatsCan, it’s only ~3.4%) I got a sharp intake of breath and murmurs of “wow” from both classes.
These are very sharp students, some having already spent summers working for banks and consulting firms, and their sense, from all the attention we pay to the fossil fuel industry, the FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) they spread, and the amount politicians talk about it, students assumed the importance to Canada was literally 10x times bigger than it is. (Also of note, it’s only 20% of Alberta’s GDP. Of course, if Danielle Smith stopped making it impossible to roll out wind and solar projects, that number would decrease quite rapidly.)
My lecture then compared the clean economy – clean / climate tech, renewable energy, green building, green fuels, biotech, venture investment, responsible investing, sustainability consulting, etc – but only counting just the numbers I could get with any accuracy – and the total for the clean economy, even with lots of holes, was actually higher!
And so I was blessed to actually watch world views changing – and in real time!
We talked about where the fossil fuel industry is headed over the next 10 years (flat to down) vs. the clean economy (300% growth over next 10 years, if we keep pace with the rest of the world).
We talked about the incredible impact and massive risk of abandoned oil wells and the tar sands ($270 billion clean up costs estimated – with less than $2 billion held in reserve to do the job) and how “big oil” offloads liabilities for clean up, by selling almost-depleted wells for pennies on the dollar, to smaller companies who strip as much oil as possible – and then abandon the business – and the liability – leaving taxpayers on the hook for yet one last VERY big subsidy. To put this in perspective – the clean up bill will get bigger – and is already half – HALF – of our federal budget for one year.
But mostly we talked about all the very cool companies in Canada doing so many things in the clean economy, how successful many have been at developing solutions that are saleable world wide – and in a way oil and steel are not. And we talked about heading to where the puck is going – e.g. building new opportunities for them and their eventual kids in a massive growth industry – not propping up a 100 year-old industry whose recent annual profits are roughly equal to the subsidies taxpayers provide.
They were dumbfounded this information was not already well understood by Canadians – that no one had ever shared it with the. And they wanted this story spread widely!
We had a couple of “free market” types in the crowd. “I don’t want government support going to the oil companies – but I don’t want it going to clean tech either” said one. Several nods from the free market bros around the room.
So then we talked about why clean tech companies should get government support and why oil companies should not: Because clean tech is in a start up phase, because it’s where the jobs are and where many more will come from, and mostly because IP is highly portable. Other countries want ours, and our best are being pursued with significant government support, matching and top ups for building facilities, easier access to capital – the list goes on – and then lured south to the USA, to Europe, and even China – and so Canada needs to keep pace or lose them.
Nods from the free market types. They’ve got it now…
After a lot of further conversation, where students expressed genuine frustration no one had ever shared this with them before, they asked what they could do. And then committed to calling their MPs. And I’m holding them to it!!
If you want to add your comments, there’s shorter version of this story posted on LinkedIn…
